Researchers Predict End Date Of COVID-19 Pandemic
Some scientists and researchers at the Singapore University of Technology and Design predict that the coronavirus pandemic will end globally early next year.
Their prediction is that the world would not be free of the virus until 5 January 2021.
But some countries would be free earlier than the terminal date projected.
The researchers used data-based estimations to create models which show the coronavirus life-cycle in specific countries.
Then they used the data to estimate an “end date” for the COVID-19 outbreak globally and in specific countries.
Countries featured in the analysis are the US, UK, Italy, France, Spain, Germany, India and Turkey.
Others are Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates.
Here are the theoretical “end dates” for the coronavirus outbreak in the following countries:
- United States: October 22, 2020.
- United Kingdom: September 30, 2020.
- Italy: October 23, 2020.
- France: August 25, 2020.
- Spain: August 15, 2020.
- Germany: August 20, 2020.
- India: October 19, 2020.
- Turkey: September 11, 2020.
- UAE: September 3, 2020
- Saudi Arabia: September 10, 2020.
- Qatar: September 14, 2020.
The research uses the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model which describes the spread of infectious diseases and data of coronavirus cases as of May 7.
The SIR model uses three differential equations to describe the dynamic flow of people between three categories: S for the number of people ‘susceptible’ to infection, I for the number of infectious people, and R for the number of removed people (either recovered or died) in the population.
The research paper, updated 11 May, stressed that the predictions are uncertain and subject to change depending on real-world developments such as government policies, testing protocols and human behaviours.
“The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries over time. Predictions are uncertain by nature,” the researchers warned.
“Readers must take any predictions with caution.
“Over-optimism based on some predictions is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided”.
The research was coordinated by Jianxi Luo, a tenured Associate Professor with the Singapore University of Technology and Design.
He is also the Director of Data-Driven Innovation Lab, and Director of SUTD Technology Entrepreneurship Program.